Macro Outlook

Roundup 30/01/12

We’re all trying to be Chinese now... Read More...

Roundup 19/10/11

Shutting out the noise Read More...

Roundup 14/09/11

Summer may be over but the heat is still on in Europe Read More...

Roundup 26/05/11

What could change? Read More...

Roundup 21/04/11

Bipolar disorder in the US stock market? Read More...

Roundup 31/03/11

To QE or not to QE, that is the QuEstion Read More...

Roundup 21/03/11

Japan: Land of rising equities; Hot money burns investors; Operating at the seams; Is the trend still your friend? Read More...

Roundup 04/02/11 through 15/02/11

Dr. Bernanke and Dr. House Read More...

Roundup 29/01/11 through 04/02/11

Some thoughts on Egypt and the reflation trade
Read More...

Roundup 08/01/11 through 12/01/11

Some thoughts on inflation Read More...

The prevailing view in Q1 and scenarios for Q3 and Q4

A summary of the prevailing consensus as we enter Q1 2011, and scenarios for mid 2011 based on these views. Read More...

Looking ahead to 2011

Some initial thoughts about the global macro outlook as we enter into 2011: Bullish and bearish factors and my playbook Read More...

A Selection of Views from 2010


In 2010, policymakers in the developed world will be caught between a rock and hard place.  On one hand there will be signs that these economies are emerging from the doldrums of 2009, which calls for higher interest rates and normalisation of economic policy.  On the other hand, there will be deflationary pressures from high unemployment, increasing taxes and weak consumer sentiment.  The consequence of this is that monetary policy is likely to remain loose for longer than needed, spurring a rally in equities and real assets.  Read More...